Over/Under Pattern
xG-Based Totals Betting
Description
This modern strategy uses expected goals (xG) trends to identify when totals markets are mispriced, especially over/under 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5. The edge comes from analyzing team statistics, predicted scores, and historical patterns to find value in totals markets. By comparing AI predictions and team averages to bookmaker odds, you can identify matches where the over/under lines don't reflect the true scoring potential.
Concept
Use expected goals (xG) trends to identify when totals are mispriced — especially over/under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5.
How to find value:
- Compare AI predicted scores to bookmaker totals lines
- Analyze team historical averages (goals scored/conceded)
- Identify matches where predicted totals differ significantly from odds
- Look for teams with consistent high/low scoring patterns
Examples of high-probability scenarios:
- Two high-scoring teams → Over 2.5 is undervalued
- Strong defense + low scoring teams → Under 2.5 value
- Home team averages 2+ goals, away team weak defense → Over 2.5
- Both teams average <1 goal per game → Under 2.5
Bettors who analyze team statistics and AI predictions
Requires accurate team statistics and prediction data
Bookmakers adjust totals lines based on public perception, but AI predictions combined with historical data can reveal true value